Expressions
Predict the Trend: A Concise Guide to Forecasting China’s Economy and Interest Rates
Before I went to London and enrolled London Business School, I wrote this book as memoir of the first chapter of my career. I hope to use this book to pay tribute to Joseph Ellis, an ex-Goldman analyst. His book Ahead of the Curve greatly inspired my research ideas and laid the foundation for my research methodology. My book uses the same method to map out China’s macroeconomic chronology and provided a viable forecasting framework to guide fixed income investment.
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Manager-Investor game: evolve of honesty and incredulity
This article was the final project of my game theory class in graduate school. In this paper, I developed an evolutionary game theory model, which I named the Manager-Investor Game, to study the credibility issue between a fund manager and his or her investors. The model showed that if auditing cost is sufficiently small, letting the manager pay for the auditing fee can lead to minimum deadweight loss (DWL) and higher economic efficiency. In contrast, if the auditing costs are high, then both parties would automatically agree to a fixed return and abandon the proportional profit-sharing arrangement.
Did Chine benefit from ACFTA?
In this paper, I use an extended form of the Gravity Model to examine China’s gains, measured by the increase in total value of export to ASEAN countries, through the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA). Regression results showed that ACFTA had a positive, but negligible, effect on China’s exports to ASEAN countries.
On the Origin of Rights
I wrote this 500-word article as part of the application to a hedge fund. The essay question was “tell us something you believe in but most other people do not.” In this little piece, I used a simple game theory model to argue that rights are not naturally embedded in our society, but the equilibrium of repeated games in economic development.