About Me

Hi! I’m Hogan, an MBA candidate at London Business School. I was an economist by training with a background in applied mathematics. I discovered my enthusiasm in investment research and market forecasting since I started my career. My research and publication are grounded in the idea that the financial market dynamics are inherently economic activities, which are directed, operated, and maintained (or not) in certain patterns, by people in and between institutions. Economic activities are like physics in that they are both predictable as long as we have access to the relevant data. Therefore, I spent a significant portion of my career working on forecasting techniques.

My background and history

I received my Master in Applied Economics from Georgetown University, my B.S. in Applied Mathematics from the School of Mathematical Sciences at Peking University, and my B.A. in Economics from the National School of Development at Peking University. For just under four years after graduate school, I worked at the CITIC Securities, China’s top one investment bank, as an investment analyst. At CITICS, I was first an alternative credit analyst, then switched course to become an interest rate strategist.

I use qualitative, quantitative, and computational methods to investigate the relationships among economic indicators as well as asset prices. For the past two years, I have been studying China’s macroeconomic chronology and developing forecasting methods to guide fixed income investment. As a macroeconomic and interest rate strategist, I had the pleasure to work on many interesting research projects, including yield curve forecasting, GDP forecasting, inflation nowcast, statistical arbitrage trading, etc. Before I entered the exciting field of macroeconomic analysis, I used to foucs on structured credit investment, specializing in the equity tranches of consumer loan-backed securities. I was one of the first investors in China to invest in the ABS equity tranche market, and I developed China’s first analytical algorithm for this asset class. I’ve also invested in project finance debt, mostly in infrastructure and real estate industries.

Unlike most investment analysts, I use substantially more quantitative tools in my work. It is my belief that the ultimate goal of buy-side investment research is to forecast the market with greater accuracy. There are two types of forecasting mindset. The first and most common one is to identify trends and predict the turning points. In a data-enriched era, identifying trends and turning points naturally leads to the extensive use of econometric models, which was the major focus of my work. Another forecasting mindset is mean-reversion. By determining the “fair value” of an asset and assuming the actual value will eventually converge to fair value, we can predict the direction of asset price movements. Empirical evidence has proved that such convergence almost always occurs. This mindset leads to the discipline of value investing, which is my current academic focus at business school. Forecasting the market is the fundamental driver of my career motivation.

I left my job in Sep 2020 and enrolled London Business School to pursue a MBA degree so that I can strengthen my understanding of business and explore opportunities in the international financial industry.

My career interest

My competitive advantage is that I speak the languages of both investors and data scientists, which allows me to think differently and invest more intelligently. I often use more statistical forms of analysis to contextualize and further support more qualitative approaches in investment analysis. That is not to say I am a statistician who understand little about financial investing, but rather that I constantly seek ways to challenge the status quo and improve conventional methods of investment analysis. I am actively looking for internships and full time opportunities at asset managers or hedge funds, ideally combining my most recently acquired business knowledge and my past experience. If you need a helping hand in investment research, data analytics, and economic research, please feel free to reach out!